Obama Poised to Eke Out Enough Electoral Votes to Win
AMES, Iowa —President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral- vote hunt, Republican Mitt Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and have to pick off key states leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
To be sure, anything can happen in the coming days to influence the Nov. 6 election.
The AP analysis isn't intended to predict the outcome. Rather, it's meant to provide a snapshot of a race that has been stubbornly close in the small number of competitive states all year.
The analysis is based on public polls and internal campaign surveys as well as spending on advertising, candidate visits, get-out-the-vote organizations and interviews with dozens of Republican and Democratic strategists in Washington and in the most contested states.
The analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But his team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
comments powered by Disqus